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TheWord  asx forum Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 00:10:22     Forum: General     Post #754892    Read: 606 times    IP Address 110.175.xxx.198

Those who've been here for a while will know that I'm a natural skeptic.

Therefore, when I hear all of these reports that the USA has suddenly regained its energy independence due to shale oil deposits, and that all sorts of countries are now claiming similar things...well, it starts to "smell".

Now, I must admit that I haven't much examined this movement before, having considered it a bit of bluster.

However, I've recently read a couple of people who I respect giving it coverage (if not exactly endorsing it). So, I went looking for good, detailed, scientific information about it. And, guess what I found?

Nothing.

Well, nothing apart from propaganda on both sides of the aisle. However, the proponents pump it up as a "gamechanger".

So, my query to others here is: can you please point me in the direction of the most reliable studies (either confirming or refuting shale oil) that you know of.

Thanks in advance.

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maxe  discuss asx General stock   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 00:26:11     Forum: General     Post #754894    Read: 580 times    IP Address 121.91.xxx.230
In reply to post #754892 from TheWord   



This is my concern about it, both shale oil and the shale gas, is that we must drill nearly everywhere to get it and destroy the water table and there's nothing stopping them drilling under your house and property it seems.

Nothing appears off limits in the grab for oil and gas.



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salvation  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 00:27:51     Forum: General     Post #754895    Read: 577 times    IP Address 114.73.xxx.144
In reply to post #754892 from TheWord   



may i deeply respect your ability to be a skeptic, my limited knowledge is the shale is dug like coal then the oil is extracted but MP might know a lot better


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gerkin02  discuss asx General stock    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 00:37:33     Forum: General     Post #754897    Read: 577 times    IP Address 123.2.xxx.222
In reply to post #754892 from TheWord   



Ok,I will give you an answer based on my own research and experience.

Shale is basically a rock combined with kerogin,which has under heat and pressure over many thousands of years formed hydrocarbons(oil,gas,condensate,natural gas liquids.

Most shales have very little permability(the ability for hydrocarbons to migrate through the rock),if any,whist many have quite good porosity(ability for the rock to store hydrocarbons between the particles).

There are other things needed for a successful shale such as TOC(total organic carbon-amount of organic matter),brittleness(ability to respond to fracture stimulation).

So basically there are large areas of these shales that depositionally created hydrocarbons,had the ability to store them and they were captured there.

Now through technology companies drill vertically down to the shale horizon then horizontally through the shale for many thousands of feet.
This gives the well bore the maximum amount of conectivity to the shale.
They then break the horozontal up into sections and fracture the rock with high pressure fluids,(to create the permabity or pathway)then a propent(usually sand is pushed into the fractures to keep them open)and conectivity is established between the reservoir(hydrocarbons) and the well bore.

Shales are quite often uniform and cover very large areas.

The energy revolution is real,it is happening esp in the united states.They have existing infastructure,they have the expertise,the have the equipment and they have a very large shale resource.

All the best.


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TheWord  asx forum re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 00:45:49     Forum: General     Post #754899    Read: 572 times    IP Address 110.175.xxx.198
In reply to post #754897 from gerkin02   



Yes, that's as I understood it, as well.

Where my skepticism kicks in, is in the assertion that it can provide long-term, competitive alternatives to traditional, liquid hydrocarbons.

Obviously, it can provide a supplement to those sources, but can it replace it? I have heard that the wells have a very short lifespan, compared with traditional wells and that in order to produce them, you need to burn a lot of energy in the form of drilling, stimulation, etc.

I have no doubt that you can produce some oil from the technology (and I know that they are producing oil from it). My question is whether it is the holy grail which many recent news articles are suggesting.

All I can find so far are green articles proclaiming that it represents accelerated global doom, and industry assertions that it will solve all of our problems.


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salvation  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 00:53:56     Forum: General     Post #754901    Read: 558 times    IP Address 114.73.xxx.144
In reply to post #754897 from gerkin02   



so the physical mining and then crushing it was too hard ??


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matross  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 00:55:32     Forum: General     Post #754902    Read: 557 times    IP Address 121.45.xxx.98
In reply to post #754892 from TheWord   



Shale oil is in itself nothing TheWord, its the technique of extraction which is, Halliberton is the pioneer of fracking shale.


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gerkin02  discuss asx General stock    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 00:57:09     Forum: General     Post #754903    Read: 551 times    IP Address 123.2.xxx.222
In reply to post #754899 from TheWord   



On 14/11/2011 BHP put out an investor briefing on why the are moving into unconventional resource plays in the US.

BHP have made significant purchases in shale gas,which has very little if any liquid content.
Now gas in the US sells for about $2.30 per thousand cubic feet.In Australia it is $9-$11 for the same quantity.Although they have some very good acreage in the eagle ford shale and probably the permian basin for liquids.

Practically no company can make money currently from dry gas in the US.But liquids are different,oil,condensate(light oil easily refined into diesel),natural gas liquids(around half the price of oil).

So most companies in the us hydrocarbon space are chasing oil or liquids.

All the best



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gerkin02  discuss asx General stock    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 00:59:59     Forum: General     Post #754904    Read: 547 times    IP Address 123.2.xxx.222
In reply to post #754901 from salvation   



Are you refering to oil sands or oil shale where they need to heat the rock to liquify the oil for extraction?

These techniques mostly occur in Canada and can be very energy intensive.



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salvation  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 01:07:55     Forum: General     Post #754908    Read: 537 times    IP Address 114.73.xxx.144
In reply to post #754904 from gerkin02   



sounds like that was only a theory back when i read about it , so the risk of a runaway fire/explosion is catered for??


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matross  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 01:08:36     Forum: General     Post #754909    Read: 537 times    IP Address 121.45.xxx.98
In reply to post #754899 from TheWord   



It is the holy grail for the US back to super power status, please prepare yourseslf for spmething you may at first find repulsive

Don't forget to click the full screen tab




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Joules mm1  asx General sharemarket discussion    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 01:18:13     Forum: General     Post #754912    Read: 462 times    IP Address 124.168.xxx.154
In reply to post #754892 from TheWord   



TW, don't shoot the messenger, ok......


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matross  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 01:22:33     Forum: General     Post #754914    Read: 521 times    IP Address 121.45.xxx.98
In reply to post #754909 from matross   



.


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matross  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 01:31:07     Forum: General     Post #754917    Read: 514 times    IP Address 121.45.xxx.98
In reply to post #754899 from TheWord   



Shale fracking process
Don't forget to click the full screen tab



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matross  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 01:35:14     Forum: General     Post #754919    Read: 509 times    IP Address 121.45.xxx.98
In reply to post #754899 from TheWord   



Prepare yourself TheWord for the downside,that US congress will not stop US back to super power status

Don't forget to click the full screen tab



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gonefishing  asx General stockmarket discussion    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 01:50:18     Forum: General     Post #754923    Read: 499 times    IP Address 180.216.xxx.210
In reply to post #754899 from TheWord   



TW

I think there was an Australian Company that said it will make an "Gas to Liquid plant" targeting non-conventional hydrocarbons; Shale Gas.

Do you want the name of the company?



(oops the link gave it away... )


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matross  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 01:50:47     Forum: General     Post #754924    Read: 494 times    IP Address 121.45.xxx.98
In reply to post #754892 from TheWord   



This is part of the fracking process after the exploding the casing ,then pumping water & sand at very high pressure down wells to send oil & gas back to the surface



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salvation  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 01:54:07     Forum: General     Post #754925    Read: 491 times    IP Address 114.73.xxx.144
In reply to post #754923 from gonefishing   



is if gonefishing doesn't have enough "busy"threads to read though can't talk Gunshow into thinning them out


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salvation  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 02:16:02     Forum: General     Post #754926    Read: 475 times    IP Address 122.110.xxx.91
In reply to post #754923 from gonefishing   



recieved your message however it won't open and faourite list has changed


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gonefishing  asx General stockmarket discussion    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 02:18:38     Forum: General     Post #754927    Read: 468 times    IP Address 180.216.xxx.210
In reply to post #754926 from salvation   



very odd... I didn't do it


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salvation  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 02:21:59     Forum: General     Post #754928    Read: 463 times    IP Address 122.110.xxx.91
In reply to post #754927 from gonefishing   



my favourites changed as well apart from Plat don't talk much to "sudden"new favourites PS had no subject title either ,might be a nasty


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gonefishing  asx General stockmarket discussion    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 02:23:41     Forum: General     Post #754930    Read: 460 times    IP Address 180.216.xxx.210
In reply to post #754928 from salvation   



Im not sure what happened... have no idea why...

btw I can't open the msg either


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dwuuuu  discuss asx General stock    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 02:30:07     Forum: General     Post #754931    Read: 458 times    IP Address 118.208.xxx.70
In reply to post #754892 from TheWord   



The money side is from 1 or 2 years worths of production but the important thing is that costs are recouped very quickly in 3-5 months.

So, no, a single well is not going make a company super rich. You need multiple wells in order to that.

When you have about a 100 wells in operation in a rich shale oil area, it's easy money from there !!!


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matross  asx General stock forum   re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 02:41:15     Forum: General     Post #754934    Read: 455 times    IP Address 121.45.xxx.98
In reply to post #754931 from dwuuuu   



Anyone know any Australian oil and gas COY'S in the US? GGP


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loogs  discuss asx General stock    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 06:47:57     Forum: General     Post #754939    Read: 349 times    IP Address 124.150.xxx.235
In reply to post #754934 from matross   



AZZ


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rileyi  asx General stockmarket discussion    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 08:51:40     Forum: General     Post #754964    Read: 363 times    IP Address 124.149.xxx.180
In reply to post #754934 from matross   



Linc Energy in the US, and Alaska with conventiional oil, EOR to use carbon to push oil out, and coal to gas to liquids, resulting in refined diesel and carbon seperation for EOR usage again on their oil projects. Has diversity of location and energy sources.Sassol from Sth Africa using gas to liquids targetting a 100kbbpd project can utilize the cheap gas to liquids, whilst LNC burn coal well below water table, preferred depth 200m to 1000m below surface can utilize stranded coal whilst reducing carbon footprint by 30+%. Better than labour plans to spend billions on reductions here in Linc's own backyard.

Linc have first mover and size advantage over CTP, plus have shales in Sth Australia, more of the complete package.


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MoneyPenny  asx forum re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 11:50:59     Forum: General     Post #755074    Read: 341 times    IP Address 124.341.xxx.663
In reply to post #754892 from TheWord   



A good start is US Energy Information Administration's "world Shale Gas Resource: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States" report - came out in April 2011

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/about_shale_gas.cfm

Also the International Energy Agency's report - Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas - Page 57 covers the global potential of unconventional gas

http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdf

UBS - Australian Energy Sector - Outlook 2012

http://www.scribd.com/doc/76417513/111221-Energy-UBS



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TheWord  asx forum re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 11:57:45     Forum: General     Post #755080    Read: 335 times    IP Address 150.101.xxx.143
In reply to post #755074 from MoneyPenny   



Thanks MP.

Shale gas I'm OK with. It's the predictions regarding shale oil which I'm skeptical about.


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MoneyPenny  asx forum re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 12:24:12     Forum: General     Post #755101    Read: 320 times    IP Address 124.341.xxx.663
In reply to post #755080 from TheWord   



TW - EIA site also covers shale oil....

Expectations for Oil Shale Production

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Released: Issues in Focus, AEO2009



Background

Oil shales are fine-grained sedimentary rocks that contain relatively large amounts of kerogen, which can be converted into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons (petroleum liquids, natural gas liquids, and methane) by heating the rock, usually in the absence of oxygen, to 650 to 700 degrees Fahrenheit (in situ retorting) or 900 to 950 degrees Fahrenheit (surface retorting) [60]. (Oil shale is, strictly speaking, a misnomer in that the rock is not necessarily a shale and contains no crude oil.) The richest U.S. oil shale deposits are located in Northwest Colorado, Northeast Utah, and Southwest Wyoming (Table 10). Currently, those deposits are the focus of petroleum industry research and potential future production. Among the three States, the richest oil shale deposits are on Federal lands in Northwest Colorado.

The Colorado deposits start about 1,000 feet under the surface and extend down for as much as another 2,000 feet. Within the oil shale column are rock formations that vary considerably in kerogen content and oil concentration. The entire column ultimately could produce more than 1 million barrels oil equivalent per acre over its productive life. To put that number in context, Canadas Alberta oil sands deposits are expected to produce about 100,000 barrels per acre.

The recoverable oil shale resource base is characterized by oil yield per ton of rock, based on the Fischer assay method [61]. Table 10 summarizes the approximate recoverable oil shale resource within the three States, based on the relative oil concentration in the oil shale rock. In addition to oil, the estimates include natural gas and natural gas liquids, which make up 15 to 40 percent of the total recoverable energy, depending upon the specific shale rock characteristics and the process used to extract the oil and natural gas. The three States contain about 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil in deposits with expected yields of more than 20 to 25 gallons oil equivalent per ton, which are more attractive economically than deposits with lower concentrations of oil. In comparison, on December 31, 2007, U.S. crude oil reserves were 21 billion barrels, or roughly 2.5 percent of the amount potentially recoverable from oil shale deposits in the three States [62].

Oil Shale Production Techniques

Liquids and gases can be produced from oil shale rock by either in situ or surface retorting. During the mid-1970s and early 1980s, the petroleum industry focused its efforts primarily on underground mining and surface retorting, which consumes large volumes of water, creates large waste piles of spent shale, and extracts only the richest portion of the oil shale formation. There were also some experiments using a modified in situ process, in which rock was mined from the base of the oil shale formation, explosive charges were set in the mined-out area (causing the roof to collapse and fragmenting the rock into smaller masses), and underground fires were set on the rubble to extract natural gas and petroleum liquids. The combustion proved difficult to control, however, and the process produced only low yields of petroleum liquids. Surface subsidence and aquifer contamination were additional issues.

The in situ processes now under development raise the temperature of shale formations by using electrical resistance or radio wave heating in wells that are separate from the production wells. Also being considered are ice wallscommonly used in constructionboth to keep water out of the areas being heated and to keep the petroleum liquids that are produced from contaminating aquifers. The benefits of those methods include uniform heating of the formation; high yields of gas and liquid per ton of rock; production of high-quality liquids that commingle naphtha, distillates, and fuel oil and can be upgraded readily to marketable products; production yields of more than 1 million barrels per acre in some locations; no requirement for disposal and remediation of waste rock; reduced water requirements; scalability, so that additional production can be added readily to an existing project at production costs equal to or less than the cost of the original project; and lower overall production costs. Given these advantages, an in situ process is likely to be used if large-scale production of oil shale is initiated.

Although the technical feasibility of in situ retorting has been proved, considerable technological development and testing are needed before any commitment can be made to a large-scale commercial project. EIA estimates that the earliest date for initiating construction of a commercial project is 2017. Thus, with the leasing, planning, permitting, and construction of an in situ oil shale facility likely to require some 5 years, 2023 probably is the earliest initial date for first commercial production.

Economic Issues

Because no commercial in situ oil shale project has ever been built and operated, the cost of producing oil and natural gas with the technique is highly uncertain. Current estimates of future production costs range from at least $70 to more than $100 per barrel oil equivalent in 2007 dollars. Therefore, future oil shale production will depend on the rate of technological progress and on the levels and volatility of future oil prices.

Technology progress rates will determine how quickly the costs of in situ oil shale extraction can be brought down and how quickly natural gas and petroleum liquids can be produced from the process. The in situ retorting techniques currently available require the production zone to be heated for 18 to 24 months before full-scale production can begin.

In addition to price levels, the volatility of oil prices is particularly important for a high-cost, capital-intensive project like oil shale production, because price volatility increases the risk that costs will not be recovered over a reasonable period of time. For example, if oil prices are unusually low when production from an oil shale project begins, the project might never see a positive rate of return.

Public Policy Issues

Development of U.S. oil shale resources also faces a number of public policy issues, including access to Federal lands, regulation of CO2 emissions, water usage and wastewater disposal, and the disturbance and remediation of surface lands. If the petroleum industry were not permitted access to Federal lands in the West, especially in Northwest Colorado, the industry would be excluded from the largest and most economical portion of the U.S. oil shale resource base.

In addition, current regulations of the U.S. Bureau of Land Management require that any mineral production activity on leased Federal lands also produce any secondary minerals found in the same deposit. On Federal oil shale lands, deposits of nahcolite (a naturally occurring form of sodium bicarbonate, or baking soda) are intermixed with the oil shales. Relative to oil and other petroleum products, nahcolite is a low-value commodity, and its price would fall even further if its production increased significantly. Thus, co-production of nahcolite could increase the cost of producing oil shale significantly, while providing little revenue in return.



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Joules mm1  asx General sharemarket discussion    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 13:01:16     Forum: General     Post #755129    Read: 271 times    IP Address 60.241.xxx.129
In reply to post #754892 from TheWord   



ya got the rabbits hunting.....nice work, TW


history/production pdf




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rileyi  asx General stockmarket discussion    re: Is Shale Oil For Real?
2012-03-21 13:04:41     Forum: General     Post #755131    Read: 300 times    IP Address 124.149.xxx.180
In reply to post #755129 from Joules mm1   



I see the cheap gas as the energy driver more than shale oil, but together, they are turning around the US energy imports.


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